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[스크랩] petro-yuan과 gold-backed petro-yuan 에 대한 소고

wisstark 2018. 2. 17. 03:28

지금 시장의 관심이 3.26잏부터 시작하는 Petro-yuan 오일선물에 관심이 집중됩니다. 


이 카페에서 가장 관심을 갖는 내용이 gold-backed petro-yuan에 대한 건데, 그러나 아래 글을 읽으면서 제가 그리고 우리카페에서gold-backed petro-yuan에 대해 먼가 오판을 하고 오해를 한것 같습니다.


금본위제 위완화는 사실 지금 금본위제 달러화랑 같은 의미이고 같은 수준이라는 겁니다.


지금도 언제든지 오일을 판매한 대금은 그것이 달러화 대금이든 위완화 대금이든 간에 COMEX 를 통해 금과 은은 매입이 가능하다는 겁니다


그런데 왜 우리는 그토록 gold-backed petro-yuan에 신경을 썼을까요? 이미 금본위는 사실상 언제든지 금매입이 가능한 수준인데. 먼가 우리가 핵심을 놓친것 같습니다. 


가장 중요한 것은 Petro-dollar 를 대신하는 petro-yuan이 핵심이지 gold-backed petro-yuan이 아니라는 점입니다. 


gold-backed petro-yuan도 그렇다고 아무런 의미가 없다는 것은아님니다. 


우선 COMEX에서 100배 레버리지된 종이 금은이 아닌 1:1 또는 3배정도 레버리지된 금은이 COMEX와 상하이에 상장된 다면 이또한 미국과 런던위주의 금은사장 전체가 뒤흔들 사건이기 때문입니다.  


엄청난 부채위에 만들어지 가짜 종이금과 종이은은 딜리버리를 실퍠할 순간이 다가옵니다. 그때가 되면 종이금과 종이은은 세상에서 사라지고 진짝 금과 진짜 은이 세상을 향해그 가치를 보여주게 될겁니다  


이런한 점에서 보다 미 제국을 유지하는 가장 근원적인 핵심인 Petro-dollar 를 대신하는 다른 화폐의 등장이 달러의 폭락에 더 위협적인겁니다. 그것이 바로 petro-yuan 이라는 겁니다 (We see what happens to world leaders when they announce or  begin to sell their oil for something other than dollars.)


우리가 계속 놓치고 잇는 점은 바로 달러화든 유로화든 위완화든 간에 un-backed 화폐를 기초로 사용하고 잇는데 , 이는 바로 화폐에 대한 신뢰때문입니다.  


위완화 오일선물의 등장은 중국이 바로 달러화 말고도 세상에 신뢰를 주고 잇다는 신호가 됩니다.   그것이 gold-backed petro-yuan이 된던 아니던 단에.

(The bigger picture that everybody keeps missing has to do with one of the principle reasons that people will use an un-backed, debt based fiat currency: CONFIDENC


Whether the oil for gold contract is true or false, myth or fact, it misses the point that China is looking for confidence in something other than the dollar.)


지금도 중국 상하이 금시장에서 언제든지 금으로 전환시킬수 있는데, 중국이 금본위제 오일선물 도입을 하는 이유는, 중국이 위완화로 판매한 대금을 달러로 전화시켜서 거래하는 것을 막기위한 전략이라는 겁니다. (The contract will enable the country’s trading partners to pay with gold or to convert yuan into gold without the necessity to keep money in Chinese assets or turn it into US dollars.)



즉 gold-backed petro-yuan이라는 명칭자체가 큰 의미가 없고, petro-yuan 오일선물 등장 그 자체가 바로 중국이 금본위제를 하는 것과 같은 의미가 된다는 겁니다. 이말은 3.26일 이후 금가격 상승은 비로 대급등 할수도 잇고 안할수도 잇지만 달러대급락은 확실하다는 겁니다. 이말은 금가격은 달러화 기준으로는 이미 대급등 상태가 됩니다. 


그러나 감염효과로(contagion effect) 인해 금은 가격은 이미 3.26일 이후 또는 그전에 이미 대급등할겁니다.


이와 더블어 중요한 일이 발생하고 잇는데 러시아가 조만간 SWIFT를 탈퇴할 계획이라는 겁니다. (Russian financial institutions are prepared to survive without access to SWIFT (The Society for Worldwide Interbank Financial Telecommunication) – the global dollar-based interbank payments network – should the US and European Union follow through with threats to cut it off, according to Deputy Prime Minister Arkady Dvorkovich.)


불과 몇년전에 러시아가 미국과 유로국가들에 SWIFT 차단할거라는 협박을 받았는데 이제는 거꾸로 러시아가 자발적으로 탈퇴한다고 합니다. 즉 더 이상 달러화를 교환화폐로 일체 사용하지 않겠다는 이미지요. 



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Five ‘Dry Runs’ Successfully Completed As China Prepares To Launch Its Gold Convertible Petro-Yuan

New reports are coming in on the extensiveness of the testing for the oil-for-yuan contract. Here’s the details…

March 26th is the tentative date. We’ve got our calendars marked, but first, an attempt to clarify some confusion people have about the petro-yuan.

Why?

Because discussing the petro-yuan, and the convertibility of yuan into gold, either in Shanghai or on the LBMA where gold is priced in Yuan, is about as polemic in the gold & silver community as Bitcoin. Perhaps even more so than Bitcoin.

As you will see below, it’s not even us saying the oil-for-yuan contract is convertible to gold, but a well respected news agency.

Regardless, to help clarify some of the confusion, here’s two points I argued pertaining to what everybodyseems to be missing about the whole oil-for-yuan/oil-for-gold contract:

The first point is a counter to this statement which everybody accepts as doctrine: Anybody can buy gold with dollar at any time – no gold-backed oil contract needed.

Let’s think about “anybody can buy gold with dollars now” for a moment.

Dollars come from the United States. The benchmark global gold price in dollars comes from the United States.

It makes sense that if a company/country is selling a crap-ton of barrels of oil for dollars, said company/country would be most efficient in purchasing their physical gold on the COMEX with those dollars.

It’s not like a company or country can walk into some local coin shop with $350,000,000 in U.S. dollars and scoop up a 259,259 Chinese Gold Pandas.

They need the COMEX.

Here’s the problem: If the U.S. futures market price of paper gold is nothing more than a debt based fiat currency price for something that never actually gets delivered, but rather, gets cash settled with more debt based fiat currency, then the company/country that just sold their oil for dollars is not really able to just take those dollars and buy gold as the “matter-of-fact” statement claims.

Secondary note to the first point:

We see what happens to world leaders when they announce or  begin to sell their oil for something other than dollars.

Anybody who is not familiar with this, the answer is death of said leader and destruction/plundering of the country by the war machine.

There is a flip-side to the oil-for-gold proclamations that we are missing:

Say Oil producers Canada or Mexico, or pick some non-bedfellow countries that attract the war machine, such as Turkey, Syria, Iraq, or Venezuela, who all of the sudden decide, “We are selling our oil for dollars, but we will immediately take them and buy physical gold from the COMEX with all the proceeds.”

Are the neo-cons, the deep state, the ESF, the Fed, the gold cartel and the other nefarious players just going to sit by and say:

“sure dude, whatever floats your boat”.

Not a chance. Said groups will spring into action, most likely of the swift and violent type.

To say “anybody can buy gold now” with their dollars misses the point.

The second point is even simpler:

The bigger picture that everybody keeps missing has to do with one of the principle reasons that people will use an un-backed, debt based fiat currency: CONFIDENCE

Whether the oil for gold contract is true or false, myth or fact, it misses the point that China is looking for confidence in something other than the dollar.

So back to the new details on the oil-for-yuan contract. 

Here’s the latest from RT (bold added for emphasis):

The petroyuan is seen as Beijing’s challenge to the US dollar, the dominant global currency in oil contract settlements.

The contract could reportedly be launched on March 26 on the Shanghai International Energy Exchange (INE). The exchange has recently received the approval from China’s State Council.

In December, the INE announced a successful completion of the fifth dry run in yuan-backed oil futures contract trading. It said that 149 of its members traded 647,930 lots in the rehearsal with a total value of 268.2 billion yuan. The exchange said the system met the listing requirements of crude futures after the exercise.

The Chinese government announced plans last year to start a crude oil futures contract priced in yuan and convertible into gold. The contract will enable the country’s trading partners to pay with gold or to convert yuan into gold without the necessity to keep money in Chinese assets or turn it into US dollars.

Now, tie this latest new with what Russia just said yesterday:

Russian financial institutions are prepared to survive without access to SWIFT (The Society for Worldwide Interbank Financial Telecommunication) – the global dollar-based interbank payments network – should the US and European Union follow through with threats to cut it off, according to Deputy Prime Minister Arkady Dvorkovich.

“Certainly, it is unpleasant, as it will prove a stumbling block for companies and banks, and will slow down work. It will be inevitable to deploy some aged technologies for information transfer and calculations. However, the companies are technically and psychologically ready for the shutdown as this threat was repeatedly voiced,” Dvorkovich said, according to TASS and RT, adding that such a dramatic step would negatively corporations doing business in the US and Europe.

“In general, disconnecting Russia from SWIFT would be a crazy step on the part of our Western partners. It is obvious that for the companies which work in Europe and the US it would be harmful. And this applies not only to the shutdown of the service,” he said.

All of this is coming at a time when the U.S. budget deficit is set to explode, all fiscal responsibility has been thrown out the window, interest rates are rising due to bond selling which will make interest rates rise even further, which will require even more bond selling. The dollar is falling and it is becoming harder and harder for the U.S. government and the Fed to maintain the illusion of growth.

And China and Russia are sweeping in during all of this U.S. based turmoil and offering real solutions for the rest of the world.

Stack accordingly…

– Half Dollar


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