[스크랩] 세계 금융패권 쟁탈전/피터김님

러시아는 달러화 탈피를 위해 새로운 단계로 나가다

Russia’s Dollar Exit Takes Major New Step By F. William Engdahl with comments by Ron Dec 5, 2015 - 10:20:56 PM

 

05.12.2015 Author: F. William Engdahl

 

Russia’s Dollar Exit Takes Major New Step

 

 

Column: Economics

Region: USA in the World

어느때부터 중국과 러시아연방은 다른 나라들이 알아챘듯이 세계 기축통화인 미달러화가 그들에게 경제의 취약한 걸림돌이 된다는 사실을 알았다. 워싱턴과 월스트리트 금융권력이 달러화를 통제하고 또 세계 교역에 있어서 달러화 결제를 강요하는한, 러시아와 중국 중앙은행은 달러화를 쌓아둬야하며, 미국 재무부의 부채를 기축통화로 유지해야하는 것이었다. 그런데 러시아는 2014년 말엽에 미국 재무부와 월스트리트의 엄청난 루블화 폭락사태를 당하면서 금융이 멈추고 경제가 숨통이 졸리는 혹독한 시련을 치렀다. 그들은 러시아 루불화를 패대기 쳤고 사우디- 미국 석유통제선은 세계 유가를 붕괴시켰다. 이때부터 러시아와 중국은 조용히 달러화 탈피 전략으로 들어갔다.

For some time both China and the Russian Federation have understood, as do other nations, that the role of the US dollar as the world’s major reserve currency is their economic Achilles Heel. So long as Washington and Wall Street control the dollar, and so long as the bulk of world trade requires dollars for settlement, central banks like those of Russia and China are forced to stockpile dollars in the form of “safe” US Treasury debt, as currency reserves to protect their economies from the kind of currency war Russia experienced in late 2014 when the aptly-named US Treasury Office of Terrorism and Financial Intelligence and Wall Street dumped rubles amid a US-Saudi deal to collapse world oil prices. Now Russia and China are quietly heading for the dollar exit door.

러시아의 국가예산은 석유 수출의 달러화 수익에 크게 의존한다. 기막히게도 달러화의 통제권 때문에 러시아, 중국, 브라질의 중앙은행은 미국 외교정책에 정면으로 반대한다. 그들은 미국 재무부 채권을 달러화로 사게끔 강요받는데, 사실상 이들 국가를 손상시키려는 워싱턴의 금융전쟁이라 할 것이다.

그런데 달러화의 이런 일방적 독재가 조용히 변했다. 2014년도에 러시아와 중국은 두건의 거대한 30년 계약을 맺어서 러시아 천연가스를 중국에 공급하는 일을 성사시켰다. 양국은 교역대금을 달러화가 아닌 런민삐와 루블화로 하기로 했다. 이것은 오늘 벌어진 달러화 탈피사태의 가속을 밟게된 계기이다.

Russia’s state budget strongly depends on oil export dollar profits. Ironically, because of the role of the dollar, the central banks of China, Russia, Brazil and other countries diametrically opposed to US foreign policy, are forced to buy US Treasury debt in dollars, de facto financing the wars of Washington that aim to damage them.

That’s quietly changing. In 2014 Russia and China signed two mammoth 30-year contracts for Russian gas to China. The contracts specified that the exchange would be done in Renminbi and Russian rubles, not in dollars. That was the beginning of an accelerating process of de-dollarization that is underway today.

런민삐를 비축한 러시아 Renminbi in Russian Reserves

러시아 중앙은행은 11월27일부로 중국 런민삐(위안화) 를 중앙은행의 공식 기축화폐로 포함시키는 조치를 처음으로 발표했다. 2014년 12월31일부로 러시아 중앙은행 기축통화는 달러화 44%, 유로화와 파운드화 42%로 되어져있다. 중국 런민삐를 러시아 공식기축통화로 잡는 결정은 러시아 금융시장에서 위안화 통용을 증가시키는데, 달러화는 해를 입었다.

2015년 8월에 러시아 환거래상과 기업은 180억 위안(3조3천억원 상당)을 매입했다, 이것은 전년대비 400% 증가한 금액이다.

On November 27, Russia’s Central Bank announced that it was including the Chinese Renminbi into the central bank’s official reserves for the first time. As of December 31, 2014, official Central Bank of Russia reserves consisted of 44% US dollars, and 42% Euros with the British Pound slightly more than 9%. The decision to include Renminbi or Yuan into Russia’s official reserves will increase the use of the yuan in Russian financial markets, to the detriment of the dollar.

The yuan first began to be traded as a currency, even though it is not yet fully convertible into other currencies, in the Moscow Exchange in 2010. Since then the volume of yuan-ruble trades has grown enormously. In August, 2015 Russian currency traders and companies bought a record 18 billion yuan, about $3 billion, representing a 400% increase from a year earlier.

황금의 루블화가 다가온다 The Golden Ruble is coming

그러나 러시아와 중국이 달러화를 교체하므로써 양국의 교역거래액은 급성장했다, 이것은 2014년 미국과 유럽연합의 재재가 가해져서 끝나지않은 상황에서 벌어진 일이다.

한편 금괴가 기막힌 귀환을 하며 세계 금융계에 올랐는데, 이는 워싱턴이 1971년도에 브레튼우즈협정을 일방적으로 쫑을 낸 이래 처음있는 일이다. 그것은 데이빗 록펠러가 개인 특사인 폴볼커를 통해 기안해서 닉슨이 달러화 금괴 태환을 포기한다고 발표했던 것이다.

 

이후로 황당한 금괴 실종사건이 벌어지는데, 포트녹스 금괴보관소가 텅비었던 것이고, 그럼에도 연준은 자기네가 8133톤의 금괴를 갖고 있다고 주장하기도 했다.

2012년도에 독일정부가 연준에 대해서 독일 중앙은행 금괴를 돌려달라고 요구했을때 연준은 이를 거부했다. 그 이유는 연준이 독일금괴를 미국의 것과 구분할수가 없기 때문이라는 희대의 황당개그같은 답을 냈다. 하기사 독일은 아직도 미국의 점령지 신세이니 구분을 거부해도 반항을 하지 못하는 처지였다.

But the actions of Russia and China to replace the dollar as mediating currency in their mutual trade, a trade whose volume has grown significantly since US and EU sanctions in March 2014, are not the end of it.

Gold is about to make a dramatic return to the world monetary stage for the first time since Washington unilaterally ripped up the Bretton Woods Treaty in August, 1971. At that point, advised by David Rockefeller’s personal emissary in the Treasury, Paul Volcker, Niixon announced Waahinton was refusing to honor its treaty obligations to redeem the dollars held abroad for US central bank gold.

Since that time, rumors have persisted that, in fact, the gold chambers of Fort Knox are bare, a fact that, were it to be verified, would spell curtains for the dollar as reserve currency.

Washington adamantly holds to the story line that the Federal Reserve sits on 8133 tons of gold reserves. If true, that would far exceed the second-largest, Germany, whose official gold holdings are listed by the IMF at 3381 tons. [Ron: Bullshit! Russia and China are both said to have over 25,000 tons of gold but most of it is held by entities other than their Central Banks.].

In 2014 a bizarre event transpired which fed the doubts about US official gold statistics. In 2012 the German Government asked the Federal Reserve to return German central bank gold “held in custody” for the Bundesbank by the Fed. Shocking the world, the US central bank refused to give Germany her gold back, using the flimsy excuse that the Federal Reserve “could not differentiate German gold bars from US ones…” Perhaps we are to believe the auditors of US Federal Reserve gold were laid off in the US budget cuts?

In the ensuing scandal, in 2013 the US repatriated a measly 5 tons of German gold to Frankfurt and announced it would need until 2020 to complete the requested 300 tons repatriation. Other European central banks began demanding their gold from the Fed, as distrust of the US central bank grew.

Into this dynamic the central bank of Russia has been adding to its official gold reserves in dramatic fashion in recent years. Since the growing hostility with Washington the pace has become far more rapid. From January 2013, Russia’s official gold has expanded by 129% to 1352 tons as of September 30, 2015.In 2000 at the end of the decade of US-backed plunder of the Russian Federation during the dark Yeltsin years of the 1990s Russia’s gold reserves stood at 343 tons. [Ron: We live in a sea of lies Pilgrims, these are just a couple of them.].

The vaults of the Russian Central Bank, which at the time of the fall of the Soviet Union in 1991 held some 2,000 tons of official gold, had been stripped during the controversial tenure of Gosbank head, Viktor Gerashchenko, who told a startled Duma that he could not account for the whereabouts of the Russian gold.

Today is a different era to be sure. Russia has far and away replaced South Africa as the world’s third largest gold mining country in terms of annual tons mined. China has become number one.

Western media has made much of the fact that since US-led financial sanctions, Russian central bank reserves of dollars have fallen significantly. What they do not report is that at the same time the central bank in Russia has been buying gold, lots of gold. Russia’s total reserves in US dollars have fallen recently under sanctions by some $140 billion since 2014 parallel with the 50% collapse in dollar oil prices, but holdings of gold are up by 30% since 2014 as noted. Russia now [Ron: officially] holds as many ounces of gold as the gold exchange-traded funds (ETFs) do. In June alone, it added the equivalent of 12% of global annual gold mine production according to seekingalpha.com.

Were the Russian government to adopt the very sensible proposal of Russian economist and Putin adviser, Sergei Glazyev, namely that the Central Bank of Russia buy every single ounce of Russian mined gold at a guaranteed attractive ruble price to increase state gold holdings, that would even more avoid the Central Bank having to buy the gold on international markets for dollars.

파산한 지배권 A Bankrupt Hegemon

At the close of the 1980’s as they viewed a major US banking crisis coupled with the clear decline in the postwar role of the United States as the world’s industrial leading nation, as US multinationals out-sourced to low-wage countries like Mexico and later China, Europeans began to conceive of a new currency to replace the dollar as reserve and creation of a United States of Europe to rival US hegemony. The European response was creation of the Maastricht Treaty at the moment of the reunification of Germany in the beginning of the 1990’s. The European Central Bank and later the Euro, a severely flawed top-down construction, was the result. A suspiciously successful bet in billions by New York hedge fund speculator George Soros in 1992 against the Bank of England and the parity of the Pound, managed to knock the UK and the City of London out of the emerging EU alternative to the dollar. It was easy pickings for some of the same hedge funds to tear the Euro at the seams in 2010 by attacking its Achilles Heel, Greece, followed by Portugal, Ireland, Italy, Spain. Since then the EU, which is bound to Washington as well via the chains of NATO, has posed little threat to American hegemony.

However, increasingly since 2010, as Washington attempted to impose the Pentagon’s Full Spectrum Dominance on the world in the form of the so-called Arab Spring manipulated regime changes from Tunisia to Egypt to Libya and now, with poor results, in Syria, China and Russia have both been pushed into each others’ arms.

러시아- 중국이 금으로 기반한 루블화와 런민삐를 갖고 달러화를 대체하므로써 미달러화에서 탈출하는 사태가 눈사태처럼 시작할 수있다. 이런 상황은 미국이 자신들의 전쟁을 남의 돈으로 치렀던 일을 불가능하게 만들것이다. 그것은 현재 기축달러를 자기들맘대로 인쇄해서 전비를 마련하던 관행이 깨지기 때문이다. 이것은 세계 평화에는 큰 잇점이 되고 미국의 전쟁 지배권은 파산하는 것이다. 그게 오늘 금융계 현실이다.

A Russian-Chinese alternative to the dollar in the form of a gold-backed ruble and gold-backed renminbi or yuan, could start a snowball exit from the US dollar, and with it, a severe decline in America’s ability to use the reserve dollar role to finance her wars with other peoples’ money. That could just give the interests in favor of a world at peace a huge advantage over that warring lost hegemon, the United States.

F. William Engdahl is strategic risk consultant and lecturer, he holds a degree in politics from Princeton University and is a best-selling author on oil and geopolitics, exclusively for the online magazine “New Eastern Outlook”.

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